When you have already tried sports betting, you might already bump into the terms ‘probability’ and ‘odds.’ Many interchanges the terms thinking they mean the same thing. But in reality, these two words have completely different meanings.
If you want to level up your game in sports betting and increase your chance of winning, you must understand these two common terms properly. Read through to know the differences between odds and probability to help you carry out your next sports betting journey the right way.
Defining Odds
The first term we will discuss is the odds in sports betting. Everyone with experience in betting in any sport has already encountered bet on sports. Odds in Mathematics mean the ratio between favorable and unfavorable occurrences.
Meanwhile, odds in events such as sports are indications of the probability that an outcome will occur. On the contrary, odds against specifying the possibility that an outcome will not occur. Technically speaking, odds are defined as the likelihood that a specific event will occur or not.
Odds can be zero to infinity. If the odds of an event are set to 0, it is unlikely to occur. Moreover, if the odds are infinity, then it is expected that such even will likely occur.
For instance, you put 20 apples in a basket, eight are green, and six are red. If you pick an apple randomly, there is a high chance of getting a green apple. This situation can be presented in odds that will look like 8/12 or 2:3. It translates to having the odds of picking the green apple in 8 out of 12 or two to three.
Defining Probability
You already have an overview of the definition of odds. Meanwhile, you might think that these two terms describe one thing, and there is more depth to their meanings. For example, if odds are the ratio between favorable and unfavorable events happening, probability, on the other hand, is a concept that is concerned with the possibility of an event occurring.
It serves as the foundation of estimation theory and hypothesis testing. In short, the probability is the ratio of occurrences favorable to a certain event against the total number of occurrences.
Unlike odds that range from 0 to infinity, probability only ranges from 0 to one, considering both inclusive. Therefore, if the probability of an outcome is zero, it indicates that such an outcome is impossible to occur.
Meanwhile, a probability of one means such an outcome will happen. Remember that the higher the probability of an outcome, the more chances it could occur.
An example is a round cake divided into 12 slices with 12 flavors. When you pick a piece of cake in a blindfold, the probability would be 1/12. It means that the probability of the favorable event occurring is 2.
In this example, if one of 12 flavors is chocolate cake, the probability of you picking that flavor in a blindfold can be denoted as 0.08 or 8%.
The Significant Differences Between Odds and Probability
Now that we have covered the definition of odds and probability, it is time to discuss their key differences, which will be pointed out below:
- The word ‘odds’ is being used to define whether or not an event has a chance of occurring. In contrast, probability defines the likelihood of occurrence, i.e., how frequently the event will occur.
- Odds are conveyed as a ratio, while probability could be conveyed in a percentage or decimal form.
- Odds typically vary from 0 to infinity, in which zero connotes the impossibility of an outcome, and infinity signifies the likelihood of an outcome occurring. Probability, on the other hand, ranges from 0 to 1. So, the nearer the probability is to 0, the more likely it will not occur, and the nearer it is to 1, the more likely it will happen.
- The probability of an event happening is calculated by dividing the favorable outcome by the total number of outcomes. Meanwhile, the odds are the ratio of the favorable and unfavorable outcomes in the probability.
Converting Odds to Probability and Vice Versa
Odds can be converted to probability and vice versa. There are people preferred to predict an outcome using odds over probability. Meanwhile, others also prefer to use probability to project the outcome of an event.
When betting on any sporting event, you should know how to convert odd and probability to become more effective.
- To convert probability into odds, you must divide it by one less than the probability. So, for a probability of 0.10 or 10%, the odds will be 0.1/0.9, 1:9, or 0.111.
- To convert odds into probability, you need to divide it by one additional odd. So, converting an odds of 1/9, you must divide 1/9 by 10/9 to get the probability of 0.10.
Change the Way You Look Sports Betting Odds and Probability
Now that you better understand odds and probability and know their differences, you will look at sports betting differently. Use this newly acquired information to level up your sports betting game and boost your chance of profiting.
